2026 Shipping Preview

Happy new year everyone.

I hope you were able to recharge, reflect, crush holiday sales, and make your customers happy.

In the spirit of the new year, let’s look ahead at what to expect in 2026 for ecom supply chain and transportation leaders.

Looking Ahead - 2026

There has been a lot of competition in the last mile shipping industry this year.

I have seen some very competitive pricing offers as carriers try to add density to their networks. They are making big bets, and it’s inevitable that some carriers will fail or shut down.

Expect to see mergers, shutdowns, or adjustments to service areas from carriers.

Compared to the price cuts in 2025, shipping carriers will use the new year as an opportunity to increase prices at a time where brands are less sensitive or aware of price changes.

My advice - check your invoices more closely than normal.

Carrier pricing models are not prone to mistakes, and I have seen overcharges plenty of times. It’s much better to catch these errors before paying your invoice, rather than fighting for reconciliations.

Looking Ahead Ahead - 2027+

Long term, I expect shipping prices to trend downward due to efficiency gains with AI and robotics having such practical benefits to the transportation industry.

Zooming into the linehaul portion of transportation, it’s pretty obvious to see how fully or partially self-driving semi-trucks will have a big impact on efficiency and drive down costs.

Similar advancements are happening in sorting centers and last mile delivery driving as well.

This will take time, but consumers are the ultimately beneficiary in the form of lower costs.

Taking Responsibility

One thing that will not be changing in 2026 is your responsibility as a brand to understand transportation and logistics internally.

Founders and supply chain leaders who hand off complete responsibility to their 3PLs or carriers are the ones who should be most concerned about being overcharged on shipping.

A symbiotic relationship between vendors and brands requires a system of checks and balances. If you are completely handing off responsibility, they may take shortcuts or not give your brand the pricing and attention you deserve.

Put simply, if nobody on your internal team understands how shipping works, you are at a disadvantage. You will be paying way more than you need to.

Even for myself, as a previously (generally) competent brand operations leader, I had a blind spot in last mile shipping, and we ended up paying 24% more than our actual market value. Since correcting this, we are saving multiple 6 figures per year annually.

What you accept is usually what you get.

Quick 5 Transportation Tips

1. 2-3 carriers is usually the sweet spot

2. Check your invoices closely in the new year

3. Talk to multiple vendors

4. Know your actual current costs

5. Ask for better data

If you have questions related to supply chain, reply to this email below. I read and reply to all comments and I appreciate your back and forth dialogue.